luke.thunk.it

AV and a fully elected Lords? In the confusion Labour have somehow managed to get some of their manifesto included.

From the Labour Party Manifesto:

“To ensure that every MP is supported by the majority of their constituents voting at each election, we will hold a referendum on introducing the Alternative Vote for elections to the House of Commons. 

We will ensure that the hereditary principle is removed from the House of Lords. Further democratic reform to create a fully elected Second Chamber will then be achieved in stages. At the end of the next Parliament one third of the House of Lords will be elected; a further one third of members will be elected at the general election after that. Until the final stage, the representation of all groups should be maintained in equal proportions to now. We will consult widely on these proposals, and on an open-list proportional representation electoral system for the Second Chamber, before putting them to the people in a referendum.”

— 2 months ago
I’ve never voted Tory before, but I like their plans to give me a job.
[not my own work]

I’ve never voted Tory before, but I like their plans to give me a job.

[not my own work]

— 2 months ago
"the best hope was that in the middle of the confusion Caroline Lucas of the Green Party might nip to the palace to say to the Queen “Tell you what, I’ll take over shall I?” and run the place while the other parties didn’t even notice"
— 2 months ago
"one smartly dressed man was so overcome by the day’s high tension that he was reduced to making semi-incoherent declarations to almost anyone who would listen. But on closer inspection he turned out to be the BBC’s political editor, Nick Robinson."
— 2 months ago
1,197 people away from a LabLib majority

If just 1,197 people (0.004% of voters), in key marginal seats, had voted for Labour or the Lib Dems instead of the Conservatives, then a LabLib coalition would have had a majority.

Here’s where those votes needed to be:

Warwickshire North = 27 [C -> Lab]
Camborne and Redruth = 33 [C -> LD]
Thurrock = 46 [C -> Lab]
Hendon = 53 [C -> Lab]
Oxford West and Abingdon = 88 [C -> LD]
Cardiff North = 97 [C -> Lab]
Sherwood = 107 [C -> Lab]
Stockton South = 166 [C -> Lab]
Lancaster and Fleetwood = 167 [C -> Lab]
Broxtowe = 195 [C -> Lab]
Truro and Falmouth = 218 [C -> LD]

Anyone who refused to vote tactically in one of those seats should be hanging their head in shame right about now.

Also that 0.004% change in vote share would have given a 1.7% change in seat share (425 times greater increase in share of seats than share of votes)

— 2 months ago
The 15,667,992 people whose vote didn’t matter

Last Wednesday 15,667,992 people voted for a candidate who did not win.  That’s 53% of the people who voted.  Less than half of the people who voted will be represented by the candidate they supported.

Here is a breakdown by party, it shows the number of “wasted” votes the party received, and also gives that as a percentage of the total number of votes the party received.

OTHER = 575689 (100.00%)
UKIP = 917175 (100.00%)
BNP = 564321 (100.00%)
Green = 269378 (94.31%)
SNP = 403024 (82.02%)
LD = 5596089 (81.96%)
PC = 129651 (78.39%)
Alliance = 29923 (69.98%)
SDLP = 59374 (53.50%)
Lab = 3600427 (41.86%)
SF = 69652 (40.51%)
C = 3404308 (31.87%)
DUP = 48981 (29.12%)

You can see why a lot of people think there is no point voting for a minority party under our broken electoral system.  94% of people who voted for the Green party needn’t have bothered, and 82% of those who voted LibDem were in the same boat, and everyone who voted for a party other than the handful who won seats needn’t have bothered at all.

The LibDems are in the strongest position they have possibly ever been in to change this, lets hope they don’t let us down.

— 2 months ago
The 7,992 people whose votes really mattered

If just 7,992 people, in key marginals, had voted differently (for the Conservatives, rather than the winning party), the Conservatives would have secured an overall majority.

That’s just 0.03% of the total number of people who voted.

This is where the Tories needed those votes:

Hampstead and Kilburn = 22 [Lab]
Bolton West = 47 [Lab]
Solihull = 88 [LD]
Southampton Itchen = 97 [Lab]
Dorset Mid and Poole North = 135 [LD]
Wirral South = 266 [Lab]
Derby North = 307 [Lab]
Dudley North = 325 [Lab]
Great Grimsby = 358 [Lab]
Wells = 401 [LD]
Telford = 490 [Lab]
Walsall North = 496 [Lab]
Morley and Outwood = 551 [Lab]
Birmingham Edgbaston = 638 [Lab]
St Austell and Newquay = 657 [LD]
Halifax = 737 [Lab]
Newcastle-under-Lyme = 777 [Lab]
Plymouth Moor View = 795 [Lab]
Sutton and Cheam = 805 [LD]

This increase in vote share of 0.03% would have given a 3% (100 times greater) increase in the share of seats.

— 2 months ago
Johann Hari: Welcome to Cameron land - The Independent →

A preview of what David Cameron’s “Big Society” will actually look like, from a Conservative council he is “proud” of.

— 2 months ago